Thursday, July 16, 2015

Bill Mitchell — Euro exit will not be enough for Greece


Grexit not enough! Grexit is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for Greece recovery from the beating it has taken from EZ membership. It's also necessary to dump neoliberal policy and institute a policy that will actually work.
An editorial article in BloombergView (July 15, 2015) – Leaving Euro Is Better Than Eternal Greek Crisis – argued, with providing evidence, that “it would be better for Europe’s economic policy makers to spend their time figuring out how to manage an orderly Greek exit than continuing to negotiate deal after sure-to-fail deal to keep Greece in the euro”. Regular readers will know that I support an orderly breakup of the entire monetary union and if that is not possible then individual nations should exit on their own accord and reestablish some sane proportion in their macroeconomic policy settings. But exit is not a sufficient condition for restoring prosperity to a nation. They would also have to simultaneously abandon the neo-liberal Groupthink that holds the Eurozone economy in a vice-like grip of austerity. Under those provisos, the Greek economy would return to growth immediately and they could eliminate unemployment within a few quarters.…
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Euro exit will not be enough for Greece
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

14 comments:

Ralph Musgrave said...

“They would also have to simultaneously abandon the neo-liberal Groupthink that holds the Eurozone economy in a vice-like grip of austerity.” Eh? If Greece does Grexit, then it’s no longer in the Eurozone. It’s I the same position as the UK, Sweden, Denmark, etc: it has its own currency.

Of course that wouldn’t stop Greece implement insufficient demand, i.e. imposing “austerity”. But Greek inflation was excessive during the 1970s and 80s, thus it’s quite possible they’d print and spend too many Drachmas rather than too few.

Malmo's Ghost said...

Greeks suck. Period. All of them. Nietzsche rightly would spew these pansies out of his blowhole.

Tom Hickey said...

Interesting you bring up Nietzsche. Nietzsche glorified the will to power as the pinnacle of human develop in the Übermensh (Superman) who he identified as Der Held (hero) as heroic individual. Like in Ayn Rand. In this view, it's all about power and the will and ability to use it.

Nietzsche loved Wagner's Siegfried, who didn't know what fear is, and hated Parsifal, who came to appreciate compassion.

In the opposite view, the will to power is the original sin, so to speak. It is the assertion of ego against the whole in which all individuals are not only embedded but also interdependent.

The chief problem socially, politically, and economically is not the love of money but the love of power.

The standard, "Follow the money," is partially true. But ultimately it's about following the power.

Malmo's Ghost said...

Not saying you are but most people read him and construct oversimplified conclusions on his philosophy relative to a numbers of issues. My alluding to him in relation to Greeks is how loathsome they appear to outsiders. Analogous to his work in"Antichrist", Greeks expect their weakness to paradoxically be their strength against those sociopaths to the north. Like it or not power only reacts favorably to power. Weaklings are chewed up and spit out. Run from a pit bull and you're always screwed. Stand up to one and you might get him to back down.

Marian Ruccius said...

Ya oughta learn something about Greece's resistence movement, buddy. Try wikkipedia! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Resistance
It is Greek idealism which is keeping them fettered not weakness.

Malmo's Ghost said...

Idealism is not strength.

Tom Hickey said...

There is nothing wrong with either money or power. It's the love of money and the love of power that's an issue for humans as big animals. The choice is listening to the better angels of out nature or sinking into bestiality.

The Lord of the Rings is a myth about love of power. It turns men into beasts. Stars Wars is another modern myth about the love of power and it's corrupting influence. Darth Vader is already appearing in cartoons with Merkel and Schaeuble.

The problem doesn't lie so much with Greece. The bigger and stronger can usually conquer the smaller and weaker. Blaming the victim for being bullied is unreasonable.

The ones to be blamed are the perps not the victims and bystanders strong enough to intervene that don't. I am calling you out, America. These are your vassal states.

Tom Hickey said...

From what I can determine through the fog of the moment, Greeks and other Europeans are still mesmerized by the prospect of Europeans integration.

They are all idealists in this regard.

They haven't thought through the reality of getting there and making it work for all concerned instead of the power elite. Then and again, many probably still buy in to trickle down and believe that eventually the crumbs will fall their way, too.

Malmo's Ghost said...

I respectfully disagree, Tom. Greece need not be physically strong to be powerful geopolitically. They manifestly have made themselves victims by their rank indecisiveness. Like it or not the country comes off as a bunch of feckless whiners, whether that be true or not. They project weakness as far as any resolve exits in their lack of will to remove the shackles of oppression. Peoples of the world respect principled defiance. They hate, however, self imposed helplessness.

Tom Hickey said...

I think the majority sincerely believes that membership in the EZ is the best way forward for Greece. There's little resistance proportionately in Greece. Probably most people don't like the terms but they think that any terms are better than going it alone.

Kind of like workers in crap jobs when unemployment is high. They don't like it but they will stay put for the little they get in spite of the abuse that is piled on. Especially those with families.

This is just economic liberalism and until workers are willing to organize and revolt — if they can given the enormous power of the state that stands behind the haves — it will continue.

The haves goal is to own everything and be served by meek and subservient slaves. They relax conditions when they need to and then when conditions permit they tighten down the screw again.

This is how a capitalist system is set up and supposed to work. It's neofeudal. That's why capitalism and democracy are antithetical and the haves need to game the system to capture control from the majority. As long as workers think that capitalists are needed to create jobs, they will roll over.

Calgacus said...

Tom:I think the majority sincerely believes that membership in the EZ is the best way forward for Greece.

Gallup International End of year 2014 poll
Page 4: 52% of Greeks prefer national currency over the euro, Euro preferred by only by 32%.

This is more consistent with the referendum result than this statement about "the majority" of Greeks. Sadly, that statement is truer about the majority of the Greek Parliament & of Syriza. In any case, Greek resistance in all forms disproves an idea that Greeks suck. Tsipras did something remarkably stupid, the kind of stupidity that the right rarely shows, which is why the right wins the battles so often. That's all.

Tom Hickey said...

The rest of the Kapa poll found 72% of Greeks wanted the country to remain within the EU and 68% wanted them to keep the Euro.

Grexit Polls, Jun 30, 2015

Calgacus said...

Note that that page thought that the referendum would be close. It is implausible that the Gallup Int poll or the referendum were biased or unprofessional; there have been accusations against other polls.

As Stathis Kouvelakis says in his very important recent Jacobin interview:
So it’s completely irrational to say that the people voting for No were not in the very least taking the risk of a possible exit from the euro if that was the condition for saying “no” to further austerity measures.

Like that page, he notes that the closure of the banks substantially decreased the NO vote. Before - "The general sense was that the referendum would be won overwhelmingly, by over 70 percent."

Clearly 70+% of Greeks were saying NO to austerity - and 60+% said NO even unto Grexit. That article shows that I was wrong above - Tsipras did not get a majority of Syriza - which is why there will be elections soon.

To say that the referendum wasn't a referendum on the Euro is to say that Greeks are idiots, in both the classical and modern senses.

Tom Hickey said...

To say that the referendum wasn't a referendum on the Euro is to say that Greeks are idiots, in both the classical and modern senses.

It may that most Greek people were and still are confused, thinking that they can get a deal they can live with and also stay in the EZ.

Syriza gave that impression right up until the end and never presented the choice as involving Grexit. That seems to have been a huge mistake.