Monday, April 13, 2015

Zack Beauchamp — Hillary Clinton will pull the Democrats — and the country — in a hawkish direction

If Clinton wins the nomination, the Democratic Party's official position on foreign policy will shift with her. And, in a subtler way, the rank-and-file's opinion will change, too. On foreign policy, Clinton will remake the Democratic Party in her image.
One of the basic facts of American politics is that partisan identity swamps ideology. When party leaders, particularly a president, take one opinion, it's more likely that the party with shift with her than outright oppose her.
That seems to be especially true on foreign policy, an issue that just isn't as important to Americans as social or especially economic issues. If Clinton stakes out more hawkish positions during the campaign, Democratic voters are likely to follow her.…

Clinton is far from the only hawk in the race. With the exception of Rand Paul, virtually every Republican in the field is to Clinton's interventionist right on foreign policy. Barring a Paul surge (possible) or a Clinton collapse (unlikely), the race will be a competition between two relative hawks.
The battle for the Democratic party's soul — and, to a lesser extent, the future of American foreign policy — is looking like a fait accompli.
War clouds gathering. Look for the ROW to be arming up, too.

If HRC is elected, it's about guaranteed she'll need a war to prove that she has the right stuff unless everyone kowtows.

German Lopez

HRC is seriously out of step with the base on many important issues. If the GOP doesn't run an obvious crazy that scare the Democratic base into holding their noses and voting for HRC, many will just sit it out. Moreover, winning elections depends on a good ground campaign and that depends on intensely motivated activists. Will the activists turn out for HRC?

No comments: