Artyom Lukin — Mackinder Revisited: Will China Establish Eurasian Empire 3.0?

As readers of this blog know, I have been emphasizing Mckinder's Heartland Theory, Eurasia, the World Island, and the Geographical Pivot of History. It is central to Western geopolitics, geopolicy, geostrategy, and military grand strategy.

China has emerged as a new contender for control over Mackinder’s “Heartland.”

This is the way Western strategists are going to view and contemplate steps to counter it, since it would end plans for Western global domination.

This post is mostly about the economic impact rather than military.

In China’s Eurasian vision, economic considerations are intertwined with geo-strategic. Economically, China will benefit from establishing a huge integrated area under its leadership. Strategically, this continental zone of Chinese influence will be largely impregnable to hostile U>S. interventions, should a grave crisis occur in Sino-American relations. The U.S., possessing unrivaled naval capabilities, may well inflict damage upon the maritime margins of China’s geo-economic empire, but it will hardly be able to strike at its terrestrial core centered around Eurasian Heartland.

Russia – China’s Own Canada? 

China will not be able to create its Eurasian fortress without collaboration, or at least acquiescence, from the other great Eurasian power – Russia. Although a far cry from the heydays of the Tsarist Empire and the Soviet Union, Russia still controls much of the crucial Heartland areas – as its own territories in northern Eurasia and zones of political influence in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. 

It looks increasingly likely that Moscow, despite erstwhile Eurasian ambitions of its own, will not stand in the way of Beijing’s grand designs. Locked in a bitter fight with the West over Ukraine and other issues, Russia has no choice but to move closer toward China.…

It is now China’s turn to try and create its own version of “Eurasian empire.” Unlike Mongol and Russian dominions, which were primarily based on military force and coercion, the Chinese are deploying economic power. At present, it is simply impossible to know what kind of empire this one is going be. It could be a benevolent China-centric economic integration zone similar to the German-led EU or Brazil-led Mercosur. But one cannot rule out an attempt by Beijing to assert political hegemony in Eurasia in a more traditional imperial sense. 

Beijing’s endeavors to integrate Eurasia under Chinese aegis are seen as a serious challenge by many in Washington – a threat even. As Mackinder’s Britain viewed with alarm Russia’s growing clout in the continental heartland, today American policymakers are concerned that much of Eurasia will come under the sway of an Asian power whose ways are starkly different from the West’s and whose future strategic intentions are at best uncertain.…

These are some highlights. The whole post is worth a read.

The Diplomat
Mackinder Revisited: Will China Establish Eurasian Empire 3.0?
Artyom Lukin | Associate Professor at the School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia