Monday, December 15, 2014

Swap Rate


Excerpt below from the wiki entry on "Swap Rate" which seems to be solely within the context of the LIBOR market.


Swap rate is the fixed rate that receiver demands in exchange for the uncertainty of having to pay the short-term LIBOR (floating) rate over time. At any given time, the market’s forecast of what LIBOR will be in the future is reflected in the forward LIBOR curve. At the time of the swap agreement, the total value of the swap’s fixed rate flows will be equal to the value of expected floating rate payments implied by the forward LIBOR curve. As forward expectations for LIBOR change, so will the fixed rate that investors demand to enter into new swaps. Swaps are typically quoted in this fixed rate, or alternatively in the “swap spread,” which is the difference between the swap rate and the U.S. Treasury bond yield (or equivalent local government bond yield for non-U.S. swaps) for the same maturity. In most emerging markets with underdeveloped government bond markets, the swap curve is more complete than the treasury yield curve, and is thus used as the benchmark curve

Now re-written or edited for more general applicability to the current situation in Russia:

Swap rate is the fixed rate that Central Bank demands in exchange for use of USD balances over time. 
At any given time, the Central Bank’s forecast of what this interest rate will be in the future is reflected in the forward interest rate curve. 
At the time of the swap agreement, the total value of the swap’s fixed rate flows will be equal to the exchange rate for USDs. 
As forward expectations for interest rates change at the CB, so will the fixed rate that the CB  demand to enter into new USD swaps. 
Swaps are typically quoted in this fixed rate, or alternatively in the “swap spread,” which is the difference between the swap rate and the U.S. Treasury bond yield (or equivalent local government bond yield for non-U.S. swaps) for the same maturity. 
In most emerging markets with underdeveloped government bond markets, the swap curve is more complete than the treasury yield curve, and is thus used as the benchmark curve
This or thereabouts.

As usual per textbook MMT 101:  "All prices are a function of... what the govt lets their banks lend against things..."

But I would add that we should not assume that the people in government positions realize this; and can instead usually be seen acting in what they see as the self interest of the specific section of the government institution they work for.


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